I was reading an appraisal this morning for some clients who are purchasing a home in Truckee, and the appraiser referred to some stats about distress sales, and the fact that they appear to be declining in our market. That got me wondering about the “real” numbers, so I did a few calculations for homes in Tahoe Donner. These are just stats for homes in Tahoe Donner, not condos. Distressed sales are short sales, or REO (bank owned).
There are currently 128 homes for sale. 39 of which are under contract right now (30% in escrow) That is a very strong number.
Of the 89 homes not currently under contract, 6 are short sales and 3 are REO (10% distressed offerings) A decline from the large percentage in escrow.
Of the 39 homes under contract, 8 are short sales, and 3 are REO. (28% distress sale) Much of the distressed inventory was recently snatched up.
194 homes have sold in Tahoe Donner as of 11/30/2010. 18 were short sales (9%) and 12 were REO (6%) a total of 15% distressed sales.
In 2009 there were 227 homes sold in Tahoe Donner, and 17% were distressed sales. All but 5 of the homes with pending sales would have to close escrow in December to equal last years total sold number, and that is not likely to happen, but the percentage of decline in sales from last year will be marginal. There were 193 sales in 2008.
To summarize, nearly 1/3 of the homes currently for sale are in escrow, and just under 1/3 of those are short sales or REO’s. About 15% of the homes sold in Tahoe Donner this year were distressed sales. Down slightly from 17% last year. In the first 1/2 of 2010, roughly 27% of home sales nationwide were REO sales as reported by RealtyTrac. Some markets like Las Vegas were more like 60%. The Tahoe Donner market is faring much better with around 6% REO sales in 2010, so less than 1/4 of the national average. With 9% of the sold market being short sales, it’s clear that home prices have declined considerably from 2006. That said, declining numbers of distressed sales likely equates to declining pressure on pricing.
The bottom might be close.
